Literally days after winning the 2012 March Madness Tournament, Marquis Teague, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Anthony Davis, four of the starting five players on the Kentucky Wildcats, announced they were declaring for the NBA draft. For almost every other team in the NCAA, losing four of your five starters would devastate the entire program. For John Calipari, it was no big deal, as the mastermind of the ‘one and done’ has always planned ahead to the following season by February. If you aren’t familiar, February is National recruiting month, which allows the NCAA basketball programs to convince top high school players to join their program.

For Calipari, he went from John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones two years ago, to Anthony Davis and Marquis Teague this past year, to Nerlens Noel and Anthony Poythress this coming season. What all eight of these players have in common is the fact that they all were ranked in the Top 10 National Recruiting list. Aside from Lamb and Jones who stayed for two seasons, the other six players depending on Noel and Poythress will only play one year in the NCAA before moving on to the NBA. Thus with such highly recruited players taking in the program, it seems like a forgone conclusion that a championship repeat happens.

Kentucky Wildcats – John Calipari and the 2012-13 Wildcats will look quite different to the team that won the National Title at the beginning of April. For those unfamiliar, the 2012 National Champion Wildcats program was shocked to learn, that not one, but all five starters were declaring for the NBA draft in June. Luckily for Kentucky fans, Calipari worked his magic during recruiting week in February, as he once again recruited the best draft class for the fourth consecutive year. The 2012-13 team may all be freshmen, as top recruit Nerlens Noel is like the starting center, and Alex Poythress and Archie Goodwin are two of the scariest forward and guards in the nation.

Michigan Wolverines – After a disappointing 2012 March Madness Tournament, all the Wolverines can do is go up in next year’s tournament. With the return of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. along with the additions of freshmen Glen Robinson III, Mitch McGary and Nick Stauskas, Head Coach John Beilein has no excuses if the Wolverines flop next season. On paper, the Wolverines can go from the underrated team that tied the powerhouse Buckeyes and Spartans for the Big 10 Title, to a team that can win not only the Big 10 but also the NCAA title. Trey Burke returning is key to the success, as he and Glen Robinson III could form one of the toughest big men combos in the NCAA.

One of the most important aspects to handicapping March Madness and in particular the Final Four, is to identify the trends associated with the ranking of each club. For instance, the Kentucky Wildcats were the lone number one seed left at the end of the tournament, while the two seed was represented by Ohio State and Kansas, and the Louisville Cardinals held the four seed. For all intents and purposes, Kentucky, the eventual winner of the tournament, also boasted the best odds to win the tournament. According to the statistics, the teams with the better win percentage boasted an eight and two record against the spread.

Meaning to say, the two favorites in the Final Four games, the Kentucky Wildcats and the Ohio State Buckeyes had the best odd of winning their semi-final games. While Kentucky overwhelmed the Louisville Cardinals with their NBA caliber lineup, the Buckeyes ended up struggling against the Kansas Jayhawks. In essence, Kentucky’s starting five was able to out perform the Louisville starters, due to their maturity and acceptance of a defensive game. In other words, for bettors looking for a tip, understanding the maturity of each team can be pivotal. Kentucky has experienced trips to the finals before, while Kansas and Louisville were still raw.

On paper, despite two dreadful injuries, the North Carolina Tar Heels remain one of the best options to win the National Title. For those unaware of North Carolina’s injury platform, the Tar Heels lost Kendall Marshall to a broken wrist, while John Henson has a sprained wrist. Of the two injuries, the loss of Marshall was deemed more significant by the NHL bookies, as the Tar Heels went from five to two odds to win the Title, to six to one odds. Marshall led the league in regards to being responsible for his team’s points, as he contributed to an average of 80 points. Meanwhile, the Henson injury though serious, isn’t as significant, as North Carolina has a slew of big men to replace Henson.

The team with the best odds to win the Madness is a team that constantly underachieves, in the Kentucky Wildcats. For the past three years, the Wildcats, have put together some of the most dangerous rosters in both the NCAA and one could argue the professional ranks. Nevertheless, they have yet to be to the National Title game, under Head Coach John Calipari. With three of five starters slated to be lottery picks this coming NBA draft, it stands to reason that a Tournament win is a necessity.

In 2008, Memphis put together one of the best programs in the schools history, as they managed to stay undefeated heading into their conference tournament. Unfortunately, once they received their first loss, which happened to take place on a neutral setting, the success quickly went down hill. Nevertheless, in 2008, while Memphis was undefeated both home and away, there were plenty of other teams that were undefeated only at home. One team that had us and many other NBA trade deadline enthusiasts scratching our heads was Presbyterian who went four and 22 on the season. What was odd was, they absolutely destroyed their rivals at home, winning all four games up to February, while losing all 22 on the road! As one can imagine, the huge discrepancy of home and away cost them a chance at qualifying for March Madness.

What is also noteworthy is that during the 2008 season, there were many teams that were able to cover the spread at home, but were awful at doing the same on the road. In fact, in a study of home and away records during the 2007-08 season, it indicated, that of the 30 teams undefeated at home, 14 could not cover the spread on the road. This then translated, to a difficult road within the March Madness tournament, as the neutral setting played out to their road record. Therefore, finding a team that is strong at home can prove to be a huge advantage on the betting line.

For those new to college basketball, your first question is probably what in God’s name is a teaser? Essentially, a teaser is a parlay with a kick. That is to say, when you make a teaser you have to pick two to 20 teams to include with every team in your teaser needing to win in order for your bet to be a success. Where the Bodog teaser differs from a parlay, is that the bettor has the opportunity to control the point spread on each game. Basically, you can use a four to 10 point teaser, spread out over the number of teams included in your bet.

For example, if you have a five team 10 point teaser, you can use a adjust the line by two points in each game. In order to win your teaser, not only do your five teams have to win the games outright, but they also have to cover the adjusted point spread, to match up with the numbers established in your teaser. However, teasers in college basketball are incredibly tricky to establish. As the tournament begins, the spreads can range from three to 15 points in any game. Meaning to say, determining what number to choose for your teaser can be difficult to assess, because of the range in talent from game to game.

Power ratings are defined as the mathematical difference between teams from point’s perspectives. The reason that power ratings are used often, is because they create an unbiased opinion of which team is better, regardless of the point spread. The point spread in a basketball game, gives off the impression that one team is better then the other, based on public opinion and talent level. However, if two teams share identical records, there power rating numbers may be able to give a better indication of which team should come out on top in the game.

In terms of handicapping, we recommend reading Gold Sheet, Power Sweep or USA Today, as all three magazines focus on calculating the power ratings of every team in the NCAA for college basketball. As the season nears its end, we suggest reading all three publications, and then creating your own power ratings, based on the average of the three magazines numbers. For instance, once you have three sets of ratings the first step is to take the team with the highest ranking and calculate its new power rating. To do this, you would take the three power ratings add them, then divide them by three to get your new power rating. Once the new power rating is developed, you can determine which team is better based on the team with the higher rating.

In general, the line moving is considered to be a mistake on someone, whether it is the bookmaker, the casino, or the person setting the odds, someone will be wrong. As well, for the reason that the lines will be adjusted according to the various types of action, the sportsbooks have created three primary reasons a line would move in the first place. Here is a look at each reason the NBA line may change on an NCAA game.

Firstly, the amount of money bet on one side to the next can affect the line drastically. For example, if Duke is favored by 24 over Michigan, the public may wager 75 to 80 percent of the money on the game on Duke. As a result, in order to correct the line, the bookie may move the number to being 23.5 or 22 point spread instead. This new line, can then provide bettors the opportunity to take Michigan, since it appears that the bookies no something that the bettor does not.

Secondly, knowing who bets on what side can affect the line drastically. For instance, if hardcore bettors who frequent one sportsbook take the underdog, but a new bettor drops $100 on the favorite, the bookie will adjust the line according to what they are familiar with. Another reason they may adjust the line is player personnel movement. If a team gets an injured player back in the lineup, the bookies may circle the game since they are unsure how one team will fair over the other.

Whether you are new or more experienced in handicapping college basketball, you can instantly tell how confident a sportsbook is in one team defeating the other, by examining the point spread on each game. For instance, if Duke is favored over Virginia by three and a half points, you know that the sportsbook is undecided at who will win the game, since both teams have a reasonable chance at winning. At the same time, a sportsbook that has the NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks defeating the Toronto Raptors by 15 points on the point spread, shows that they are confident in the Mavericks and do not believe a Raptors upset is in the books.

As it relates to point spread reversals betting system, the system calls for you Joe bettor to look at teams records against the spread from the start of the season up until February 1^st. You may notice, that some of the top teams in the nation are absolutely dreadful against the spread in the early part of the season, while terrible teams are the opposite. With this being the case, February 1, signifies the halfway mark of the season, between the start and when the March Madness Tournament begins. As a result, you should expect the top teams to begin to cover the spreads, while the terrible teams continue to play to their talent levels.